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IVF Success Rates: Age, Diagnosis, Donor Egg IVF

Honest IVF success rates from SART and CDC data: cumulative live birth per retrieval by age, donor egg IVF success rate, and how to read clinic numbers.

Reviewed May 18, 202614 min read
By Pairceive Editorial Team /Reviewed by Dr. Rumpa
IVF Success Rates: Age, Diagnosis, Donor Egg IVF

You are comparing clinics, or you just had your first consult and you are home now googling whether 38 is too old, or whether diminished ovarian reserve really drops your odds. Three websites quote three different own-egg or donor egg IVF success rate numbers for the same age band. You want to understand which number is the honest one, and you want it without sugar.

I tell every patient that the most useful number for their planning is cumulative live birth per egg retrieval, not per transfer. That is the number you budget against, both financially (it drives the per-live-birth cost math) and emotionally. The "X percent success rate" headline you see on a clinic website is almost always a different number, and almost always the more flattering one. This post is the user's manual for reading SART and CDC data the way clinicians read it, including own-egg, donor-sperm, and donor egg IVF success rate by age band.

What are the four IVF success-rate metrics, ranked by honesty?

Clinics report several different numbers and the differences are not academic. Same clinic, same cycle data, four different answers depending on which fraction you compute.

  1. Clinical pregnancy rate per transfer: The most flattering. A positive beta hCG with a gestational sac on ultrasound, divided by the number of transfers done. Ignores cycles that did not reach transfer (cancelled at stim, retrieval failed, no embryos to transfer). Ignores miscarriages after the sac was seen.
  2. Live birth rate per transfer: Better. Live births divided by transfers. Still ignores cancelled cycles and failed retrievals upstream.
  3. Live birth rate per egg retrieval (per cycle start): Closer to honest. Live births divided by retrievals, including retrievals that produced no transferable embryo. This is the standard reporting unit at SART and CDC.
  4. Cumulative live birth rate per egg retrieval: The number that matters most. Live births divided by retrievals, counting every transfer from that retrieval's embryo cohort, fresh plus all frozens. This is the spend-and-time math.

When you read a clinic's success page, find which metric they are reporting. If a clinic leads with "70 percent success" without naming the denominator, ask which denominator. A good clinic will tell you and will also volunteer the per-retrieval cumulative number.

How do you read SART and CDC clinic reports without getting fooled?

The two reliable public sources are:

  • SART CORS (sartcorsonline.com): clinic-by-clinic, age-stratified, with national summary data. Free to browse. The most useful single resource.
  • CDC ART Success Rates Report: annual, publicly searchable, lags two to three years behind real time2.

Things to watch for when reading either:

  • Age stratification: data should be broken into bands (under 35, 35-37, 38-40, 41-42, over 42). A clinic average across all ages tells you nothing about your odds.
  • "Per intended retrieval" vs "per transfer": marketing pages pick the friendlier denominator. The SART data lets you see both.
  • Patient selection: some clinics exclude poor-prognosis patients from their reported numbers. A clinic that accepts everyone will look worse on paper than a clinic that turns away low-AMH patients, even if its medicine is identical. The same caution applies to how clinics report single versus double embryo transfer numbers.
  • The SET (single embryo transfer) rate: high-SET clinics will have slightly lower per-transfer numbers because they decline to double-transfer high-prognosis patients. Read this as a feature. Twin pregnancies are higher risk and SET-forward clinics are practicing safer medicine3.

What is the cumulative live birth rate by age with own eggs?

These are pooled numbers from SART CORS, CDC ART, and the Smith et al. JAMA 2015 cumulative-rate dataset of 156,000 women1. Your individual clinic may run higher or lower.

  • Age under 35: roughly 50 to 55 percent live birth per first retrieval cycle (cumulative across all transfers from that retrieval); approximately 80 percent or more by three retrievals.
  • Age 35 to 37: roughly 40 to 45 percent per first retrieval; approximately 70 percent by three retrievals.
  • Age 38 to 40: roughly 25 to 30 percent per first retrieval; approximately 50 to 55 percent by three retrievals.
  • Age 41 to 42: roughly 10 to 15 percent per first retrieval; approximately 25 to 30 percent by three retrievals.
  • Age above 42 with own eggs: under 5 percent per retrieval. Smith et al. found cumulative rates remained low even with repeat cycles in this band.

These are the numbers I quote in clinic. I do not pretend 42 has the same numbers as 32. The reader is harmed by false reassurance.

The first-time IVF success rate, when reported, is roughly the per-first-retrieval number above. Second IVF cycle success rate adds to the cumulative: the curve climbs steeply through cycles 1 to 3, then flattens. Third IVF cycle success rate represents diminishing marginal return. The cumulative curve plateaus around cycles 4 to 6 in most data sets, even in good-prognosis patients1.

What is the donor egg IVF success rate?

When age-related egg quality is the bottleneck, donor egg cycles change the math significantly.

  • Donor egg fresh transfer: roughly 50 to 55 percent live birth per transfer.
  • Donor egg frozen embryo transfer: roughly 45 to 50 percent live birth per transfer.
  • The recipient's age matters less than the donor's age because the donor is providing the egg quality. Uterine receptivity is preserved into the 40s and even 50s in most patients.

If you are above 42 with own-egg cumulative rates under 10 percent, the donor egg conversation is worth having. The donor egg success rate is one of the more decoupled-from-age numbers in fertility medicine, and for many patients it is the kindest math available. Donor egg is not a failure. It is a different cycle shape. Donor egg and donor sperm IVF success rate together approximates donor egg numbers; the donor sperm side rarely changes much for live birth outcomes when ICSI is used.

What are the IVF success rates by diagnosis?

Diagnosis matters as much as age in some bands.

  • PCOS: among the most responsive diagnoses to IVF. Per-retrieval egg yield is often above average, sometimes 20 to 30 oocytes. Per-retrieval live birth rates equal or exceed age-matched non-PCOS rates in most data sets4. OHSS risk is the trade-off, managed by protocol.
  • Diminished ovarian reserve (DOR): lower egg yield per retrieval, but per-embryo success is similar to age-matched non-DOR. The clinical issue is needing more retrievals to accumulate enough embryos.
  • Severe male factor: ICSI normalizes most of the difference. Live birth rates similar to non-male-factor at matched age.
  • Endometriosis: slightly lower per-cycle rates, particularly with stage 3 to 4 disease. Surgical history matters.
  • Tubal factor: among the highest success diagnoses because IVF bypasses the problem entirely.
  • Unexplained infertility: typically mid-range, similar to or slightly below population averages.

If you have more than one diagnosis (PCOS plus male factor, endometriosis plus DOR), the lower-prognosis diagnosis tends to dominate the cumulative number.

IVF Success Rates: Age, Diagnosis, Donor Egg IVF: infographic
At a glance: IVF Success Rates: Age, Diagnosis, Donor Egg IVF

How does cycle number change the cumulative curve?

The 2015 JAMA paper by Smith et al. is the cleanest cumulative-rate data we have1. UK NHS data, 156,000 women, all IVF cycles linked across treatments. The shape:

  • Most live births occur by cycle 1 to 2 in good-prognosis groups.
  • The cumulative curve continues to climb through cycle 4 in most age bands.
  • The curve plateaus around cycles 4 to 6 even in good prognosis.
  • Each additional cycle adds less than the prior cycle.

This is why the "when do we stop" conversation is real, and why most clinics gently introduce it after cycle 3. It is not pessimism. It is the math the data shows. We have a separate post on that conversation, and it should not be read as a threat. It is information.

What do IVF success rates not tell you?

Statistics are not predictions. The cohort rate for someone in your age band and diagnosis is the prior probability before your individual data comes in. Your AMH, your AFC, your response to stim, your embryo quality, your prior cycle outcomes all update the prior. Your actual odds at the moment of transfer can be substantially higher or lower than the cohort average.

What success rates also do not include:

  • The emotional cost of cycles that did not work. Numbers do not account for this. It still has to be accounted for.
  • Twin and triplet rates: these have dropped sharply at SET-forward clinics, which is good for maternal and neonatal outcomes even if it slightly lowers per-transfer numbers.
  • Time cost: three cycles to a baby spans 12 to 18 months in most workflows, often more.

What are the red flags in a clinic's success-rate marketing?

  • Headlines like "70 percent success" without age stratification.
  • Per-transfer rates emphasized over per-retrieval.
  • No mention of patient selection: whether poor-prognosis patients are excluded.
  • Unusually high success at the highest-tier pricing, suggesting selection of who gets reported.
  • Refusal to share SART data when asked directly.

A clinic that opens its SART page with you, walks you through the per-retrieval numbers for your age and diagnosis, and tells you their SET rate is a clinic that practices honestly. A clinic that quotes only the headline number and changes the subject is a clinic to look at twice.

What should you ask your clinic?

  • What is your live-birth-per-retrieval rate for someone in my age band and diagnosis?
  • What is your cumulative live birth rate per retrieval across all transfers from one cohort?
  • Do you exclude any patients from your reported numbers?
  • What is your SET (single embryo transfer) rate?
  • What is your OHSS rate for high responders or PCOS patients?
  • If we do not succeed in this cycle, what is the typical second-cycle adjustment your clinic makes, and what is your second-cycle success rate at my age?

What can you do this week?

If donor egg IVF success rate is on your shortlist, this week is the time to pull the data:

  • Pull your clinic's SART CORS page before your next consult. Read the per-retrieval column for your age band.
  • Compare your clinic's numbers to the national average in that band. Within 10 percent is normal. Far above or far below merits a conversation.
  • Write down your AMH, AFC, and age in one place. These three numbers, plus your diagnosis, are the inputs to the most useful prediction tools available.
  • Ask the consult specifically whether your prognosis is "good," "average," or "below average" for your age band, and what data they are using to say so.

What's next

Sources

  1. Smith ADAC, Tilling K, Nelson SM, Lawlor DA. Live-birth rate associated with repeat in vitro fertilization treatment cycles. JAMA 2015;314(24):2654-2662. https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2015.17296
  2. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Assisted Reproductive Technology National Summary Report. https://www.cdc.gov/art/index.html
  3. Society for Assisted Reproductive Technology (SART). National Summary Report: CORS preliminary data. https://www.sartcorsonline.com/
  4. Stern JE, Brown MB, Luke B, et al. Calculating cumulative live-birth rates from linked cycles of assisted reproductive technology (ART): data from the Massachusetts SART CORS. Fertility and Sterility 2010;94(4):1334-1340. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fertnstert.2009.05.052
  5. Malizia BA, Hacker MR, Penzias AS. Cumulative live-birth rates after in vitro fertilization. New England Journal of Medicine 2009;360(3):236-243. https://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa0803072
  6. Practice Committee of the American Society for Reproductive Medicine. Optimizing natural fertility: a committee opinion. Fertility and Sterility 2017;107(1):52-58. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fertnstert.2016.09.029

Common questions

Which IVF success rate number is the most honest?

The most useful number for planning is cumulative live birth per egg retrieval: live births divided by retrievals, counting every transfer from that retrieval's embryo cohort, fresh plus all frozens. The "X percent success rate" headline on a clinic website is almost always a different, more flattering number, usually clinical pregnancy rate per transfer. When you read a clinic's success page, find which metric they are reporting and ask which denominator they used.

What is the cumulative IVF success rate by age with own eggs?

These are pooled numbers and your clinic may run higher or lower. Under 35 is roughly 50 to 55 percent live birth per first retrieval, and about 80 percent or more by three retrievals. Ages 35 to 37 are roughly 40 to 45 percent per first retrieval, ages 38 to 40 roughly 25 to 30 percent, and ages 41 to 42 roughly 10 to 15 percent. Above 42 with own eggs is under 5 percent per retrieval.

What is the donor egg IVF success rate?

Donor egg fresh transfer runs roughly 50 to 55 percent live birth per transfer, and donor egg frozen embryo transfer roughly 45 to 50 percent per transfer. The recipient's age matters less than the donor's age, because the donor provides the egg quality and uterine receptivity is preserved into the 40s and even 50s in most patients. If you are above 42 with own-egg cumulative rates under 10 percent, the donor egg conversation is worth having.

Does PCOS lower IVF success rates?

No. PCOS is among the most responsive diagnoses to IVF. Per-retrieval egg yield is often above average, sometimes 20 to 30 oocytes, and per-retrieval live birth rates equal or exceed age-matched non-PCOS rates in most data sets. OHSS risk is the trade-off, managed by protocol.

How many IVF cycles does it take, and when do success rates plateau?

Most live births occur by cycle 1 to 2 in good-prognosis groups, and the cumulative curve continues to climb through cycle 4 in most age bands. The curve plateaus around cycles 4 to 6 even in good prognosis, with each additional cycle adding less than the prior one. This is why most clinics gently introduce the "when do we stop" conversation after cycle 3.